Prediction That Works

Any efforts in developing technology require regular assessment of where technical opportunities lie, what uses are important and which trends are changing. Knowing the fundamental drivers in a technology field (and nearby fields that may impact the value proposition of a given field) is very important. And making decisions that will lead to correct choices for new technology development is essential for success, especially for organizational leaders.

Challenge:

As important as making predictions is, it is very hard to do, especially when you are new in a field. Also, good technology decisions are not based solely on technical issues; human behavior and social systems are major elements in making good predictions, as is being the right person in the right place at the right time with the right resources.

Approach:

A universally valuable approach for accurate prediction is to develop models of the entities and relationships that are elements in your decision-making process. Models help you to identify and reason about the essentials and eliminate aspects that are secondary or irrelevant.

Resources:

• Using Models to Make Predictions, National Geographic.
• Making predictions with probability, Khan Academy.
• “State of Fear and Linear Prediction” Talk, by Michael Crichton.

Slides and Exercises:

The Art of Prediction, by Michael A. Heroux

Assignments:

1. Watch the Michael Crichton talk above (52 minutes).
2. Write a brief (few paragraphs, compact writing) reflection on this talk. Submit by email.