Prediction That Works
Any efforts in developing technology require regular assessment of where technical opportunities lie, what uses are important and which trends are changing. Knowing the fundamental drivers in a technology field (and nearby fields that may impact the value proposition of a given field) is very important. And making decisions that will lead to correct choices for new technology development is essential for success, especially for organizational leaders.
Challenge:
As important as making predictions is, it is very hard to do, especially when you are new in a field. Also, good technology decisions are not based solely on technical issues; human behavior and social systems are major elements in making good predictions, as is being the right person in the right place at the right time with the right resources.Approach:
A universally valuable approach for accurate prediction is to develop models of the entities and relationships that are elements in your decision-making process. Models help you to identify and reason about the essentials and eliminate aspects that are secondary or irrelevant.Resources:
- Using Models to Make Predictions, National Geographic.
- Making predictions with probability, Khan Academy.
- “State of Fear and Linear Prediction” Talk, by Michael Crichton.
Slides and Exercises:
The Art of Prediction, by Michael A. HerouxAssignments:
- Watch the Michael Crichton talk above (52 minutes).
- Write a brief (few paragraphs, compact writing) reflection on this talk. Submit by email.